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Milestone Three: Revise and Evaluate Decision Analysis Model
In this milestone, you will perform and evaluation of your decision model and revise your decision model as needed. Evaluation examples are if you are performing a bottom-up style recursive partitioning analysis, you should report on the error rate and variable selection. You might also consider alternative variable categorizations to improve your model. If you are performing a top-down decision tree modeling exercise, what are the threshold values that cause the tree to flip? You should perform sensitivity analysis on the critical variables in your tree and report what those sensitivity analyses are telling you. For either style of modeling, what makes your tree stronger? What breaks the model?
Generally, for any of these decision trees, what makes your tree stronger? What breaks the model? What kinds of variables do you wish you had but do not have data for? What is the best criticism of the tree that you drew? What are its limitations? What are its strengths? You do not need to answer all of these questions exhaustively, but can use them as launching points for your writing.
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