EMIS 8348 Homework Assignment 1
Problem 1:
Observations of the demand for a spare part stocked at a parts supply depot during the
calendar year 2012 were
Month Demand Month Demand
January 95 July 234
February 62 August 284
March 135 September 221
April 211 October 281
May 199 November 192
June 276 December 302
a. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for the demand for January 2013 using 3-,
6-, and 12-month moving averages.
b. Using a four-month moving average, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for
July through December 2012.
c. Compute MAD, MSE, MAPE for the forecasts obtained in b.
Problem 2:
Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over a ten-week
period have been 13, 11, 26, 21, 32, 13, 21, 22, 30, and 26.
a. Suppose that five-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the
one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 6 through 10.
b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α =
0.15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 6 through 10 (start the
forecasting process from week 1).
c. Based on the MAD, which forecast method is better?
Problem 3:
The sales of a tablet computer in a popular electronic store during the calendar year 2012
were
Month Demand Month Demand
January 103 July 199
February 119 August 208
March 131 September 221
April 149 October 237
May 172 November 252
June 184 December 268
a. Using 3-month simple moving average and exponential smoothing (with α = 0.10
and 0.20), determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January
2013.
EMIS 8348 Homework Assignment 1
b. Using 3-month double moving average (using base level and trend), determine the
one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January 2013.
c. Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the above forecasts.
d. Based on the MAPE, which forecast method is the best?
Problem 4:
Compile a list of major system life-cycle activities. For each activity on the list, try to
find the related supply chain activities. Present your finding in a table with the system
life-cycle stage in the first column, system life-cycle activities in the second column and
the related supply chain activities in the third column.
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