Hedging at Porsche
Q2. Suppose it is end of November 2007, and Porsche reviews its hedging strategy for the year 2009. Assume that Porsche entertains three scenarios: The expected volume of North American sales in 2009 is 32,750 vehicles. The low-sales scenario is 30% lower than the expected sales volume, and the high-sales scenario is 30% higher than the expected sales volume. Assume, in each scenario, that the average sales price per vehicle is $90,000 and that all sales are realized at the end of November 2009. All variable costs incurred by producing and shipping an additional vehicle to be sold in North America in 2009 are billed in € and amount to €60,000 per vehicle. Characterize how Porsche’s € cash flows, net of variable costs, obtained from its North American sales depend on the spot exchange rate that prevails at the end of November 2009, if:
A. Porsche does not hedge its currency exposure at all;
B. Porsche hedges by selling forward US$ equal to the amount of expected 2009 sales with a two-year forward contract;
C. Porsche hedges by buying two-year European at-the-money put options on US$ in sufficient quantity to have the right to sell an amount of US$ equal to expected 2009 sales.
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Assume the average exchange rate is $1.39 per Euro in 2009
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